Chavismo’s plays that imitate Nicaraguan techniques to retain power – Venezuela – International

“Neither by hook nor by crook. They will never rule this country again.»

This was the warning that the number two of Chavismo, God given hairlaunched a few days ago referring to the intentions of the opposition to achieve a presidential victory in 2024.

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This message is not only accompanied by words but also by actions that are under development in Venezuela. and that concern only a part of society, since the majority is busy surviving.

It is about the imitation of the Nicaraguan model, how to support analysts, exacerbating political disqualifications, sentences and other political-legal instruments that allow Chavismo to remain in power, at least for a new six-year presidential term.

In this sense, Chavismo is advancing on a structured plan to politically suffocate the opposition, something that goes against the international community, including countries like Colombia, who are asking Venezuela to put forward an election calendar.

The opposition, which had played abstentionism, always weak and dispersed, a few months ago headed for primary elections scheduled for October 22 with which they intend to choose a candidate capable of facing Nicolás Maduro and trying to emerge victorious.

According to data from the Polianalitica consultancy, based on projections made from abroad, the intention of voting in the primaries would be 53 percent for María Corina Machado; 22 percent, Benjamin Rausseo; 10 percent, Manuel Rosales; 8 percent, Henrique Capriles and 3 percent, Freddy Superlano.

According to the data, this would be one of the reasons for the radical attitude of Chavismo, which did not calculate the push that the opposition has Maria Corina Machado and who is considered his main enemy. She, in fact, has surprised with her rising popularity, especially in social strata D and E, considered Chavistas.

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These figures would be one of the reasons for the radical attitude of Chavismo, which did not calculate the drive of the opposition María Corina Machado and who is considered its main enemy. For this reason, Chavismo seeks to stop the Machado phenomenon, especially when Maduro’s popularity has been in the limits of 20 percent for years.

In Nicaragua, for example, the Ortega regime opted for the strategy of removing strong opponents from the equation. In 2021, seven Nicaraguan candidates were arrested.

Although in the Venezuelan case there are still no arrests, the fact that the National Assembly, with a Chavista majority, has announced the renewal of the National Electoral Council (CNE)it puts obstacles to the opposition so that it advances its primaries and a solid candidate emerges.

«The first thing is that this surprise action changes the political tableau»says the political scientist and analyst Ángel Medina by the way.

This Thursday, its eight pro-government rectors, including principals and substitutes, presented their resignation alleging that the country is undergoing a process of dialogue and negotiation, for which they are willing to leave their posts. The two opposition rectors did not sign the statement, but they have not offered statements either.

It is up to Parliament, chaired by the pro-government Jorge Rodríguez, to initiate the process to receive the applications and name a new electoral body.

«With a new CNE, the government is going to try to create a new figure like that of the remembered Tibisay Lucenabecause this CNE does not generate the fear or the impact of the rector Lucena”, or at least that is what the political scientist Daniel Arias believes.

The political scientist adds that the three new principal rectors must be very important figures of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) «who will surely cause a stir because they will be relevant.»

If this is the case, even if the National Commission on Primaries, made up of prominent civil society academics, insists on having technical assistance from the CNE by October, it will be unlikely that there will be confidence in the process, as has been stated by candidates such as María Corina Machado, who has not refused to participate in the process, but does question its credibility.

These diatribes are precisely part of the government’s strategy. “Without a doubt, it is more than evident that a delaying tactic for the purposes of the primary elections seeks to demotivate and demobilize the opposition conglomerate that, due to past mistakes, has often sown mistrust in the electoral system and that the ruling party takes advantage of to its most favorable scenario”, explains the political analyst Jesús Yánez.

While the realignment of the CNE is underway, on the other hand, the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) it would also be doing the same, preparing disqualifications or declaring processes such as the primaries inadmissible, as happened in Nicaragua, where the ruling party controlled the main institutions, as occurs in Venezuela.

«The primaries, without having started, have already become a demolisher of candidates,» Arias insists, stating that the government “He is going to have to play in a Nicaragua scheme” using the political and legal to neutralize candidates, leaders and campaign financiers.

If the previous prognoses are true, they coincide with the approach of Andrés Izarra, former minister of Hugo Chávez, now in exile.

Izarra argues that in the face of 2024 there will be a «hyperpolarization» since the CNE will be headed by Francisco Amelliach, a strong PSUV. While the opposition will be united around María Corina Machado, “like it or not”, and an entrenched madurismo willing to do anything to not lose power. “The Nicaraguan stage will look like a ‘kindergarten’”.

The role of the international community

Maduro has entered the international scene in the last year. The Bogotá conference showed that Venezuela is interested in solving its political conflict as long as the United States and Europe lift the sanctions against them.

And if there were a new severe international pressure, the truth is that there does not seem to be much concern in Miraflores because Maduro is likely to resist due to an interesting factor: the support of Colombia and Brazil.

In addition, since it is the same election year in the United States, a preview of elections Presidential elections could be on stage due to fears of a return of Donald Trumpwho has already confessed his claims, at least with Venezuelan oil.

A new cycle of sanctions would generate shortages, a lack of fuel and other problems that would aggravate the crisis in the country and with it social discontent, detrimental to a Chavismo campaign, explains Arias.

On the other hand, there are those who believe that the international community should seek to build as many negotiating bridges in order to achieve an electoral schedule and «allow the country to be reintegrated into the world trade scenario,» considers Yánez.

After all, it is without a doubt democracy that remains at permanent risk in Venezuela. “Democracy is not only, but these elections are an important thing within the democratic system. And altering it hurts him,” says Medina.

ANA MARIA RODRIGUEZ BRAZON
WEATHER CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS